AGP Executive Report

El Niño and drought risk: The World Meteorological Organisation warns El Niño will bring drier conditions and higher drought risk across southern Africa, including southern and central Mozambique, with knock-on impacts for agriculture, water and livelihoods. Mozambique climate vulnerability: A UN climate rights expert says Mozambique is among Africa’s most vulnerable to the 2026 “super El Niño,” flagging prolonged droughts plus cyclones and floods, and urging high-emitting states and investors to avoid deepening fossil fuel dependency. Flood costs and fiscal pressure: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, while reporting that extreme weather has become a “fiscal shock,” with recent floods causing deaths, displacement and damage estimated at about 2% of GDP. Marine conservation push: Tanzania hosts COP12 to the Nairobi Convention (Oct 6–9) to coordinate action on marine pollution, illegal fishing and coastal ecosystem degradation—issues that also affect Mozambique’s shared Western Indian Ocean. Biodiversity and resilience research: University of Hawaiʻi researchers report how tilapia adapt to extreme salinity, offering new clues for managing aquatic resilience under changing water conditions. LNG controversy: TotalEnergies is considering accelerating Mozambique LNG Phase 2, as campaigners urge shipping partners to pause carrier orders over human-rights and community concerns.

Climate Risk & Gender: A new Plan International study links climate disasters to higher risks of child marriage, teenage pregnancy and violence against girls, with one in 10 surveyed girls reporting unintended pregnancy after climate-related events and many seeing more girls marrying before 18. El Niño & Water/Food Security: El Niño is expected to bring drier conditions and drought risk across southern Africa, including southern and central Mozambique, threatening agriculture, water and livelihoods; Mozambique is also flagged by a UN expert as among the continent’s most vulnerable, with prolonged droughts, cyclones and floods predicted. Mozambique Public Finance Oversight: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, noting a contracted economy (-0.52%) and a deficit driven by spending at 89.6% of allocation, with environmental matters and climate financing included in the review. Extreme Flood Costs: Mozambique’s finance ministry says the Dec 2025–Jan 2026 floods caused losses around 2% of GDP, affecting hundreds of thousands and disrupting schools, roads and farming livelihoods. LNG Under Pressure: TotalEnergies is considering accelerating Mozambique LNG expansion, while campaigners urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders over human-rights and community concerns. Conservation & Oceans: Regional ocean conservation is highlighted as a shared, cross-border task—sea turtles moving through the Mozambique Channel show why Mozambique’s coastal ecosystems need cooperation and financing beyond national borders.

Public Finance Oversight: Mozambique’s Administrative Tribunal approved the 2025 General State Account, reviewing budget, revenue, extractives, spending, debt, state assets and climate financing, while noting the economy contracted 0.52% in 2025 and revenues reached 94.5% of projections. Climate Risk & Food Security: El Niño-driven drought risk is expected to persist across southern Africa, with Mozambique flagged as among the continent’s most vulnerable; UN expert Elisa Morgera warns of heatwaves, below-normal rainfall, and repeated droughts, cyclones and floods, as 3.5 million people already face acute food insecurity. Disaster Costs for Mozambique: Floods from Dec 2025–Jan 2026 caused losses around 2% of GDP, with major impacts in Gaza and Maputo, including destroyed schools, cut roads and disrupted livelihoods for hundreds of thousands of farmers. Water Investment Push: UN General Assembly discussions led by President Netumbo Nandi-Ndaitwah called for turning Africa’s water investment commitments into bankable projects, linking water to food security, poverty reduction and climate resilience. Energy, Rights & LNG: TotalEnergies is considering accelerating Mozambique LNG expansion, while campaigners urge shipping partners to pause orders over human-rights and community concerns. Conservation Across Borders: A new focus on Western Indian Ocean conservation highlights that protecting migratory species and shared habitats needs regional cooperation and finance that can follow wildlife journeys.

Climate Risk for Mozambique: A UN expert warns Mozambique is among Africa’s “most vulnerable” as the 2026 super El Niño could bring heatwaves, drought and more cyclones and floods, with 3.5 million already facing food insecurity. Human Rights & Fossil Fuel Lock-in: The same UN briefing urges donors and investors to avoid deepening Mozambique’s fossil fuel dependency and to align development with a rights-based, biodiversity-led climate resilience path. Flood Costs to Public Finances: Mozambique’s finance ministry says recent floods (Dec 2025–Jan 2026) caused losses around 2% of GDP, killed over 100 people, and hit hundreds of thousands, forcing costly recovery and a “new normal” of climate shocks. Mozambique LNG Under Pressure: TotalEnergies is weighing faster Mozambique LNG expansion, while campaigners urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders for LNG carriers over human-rights and community concerns. Marine Conservation, Regional Cooperation: A new conservation focus highlights how sea turtles move through the Mozambique Channel and beyond, arguing no single country can protect the full journey without shared funding and cross-border action. Local Capacity in Cabo Delgado: Techdrilling opens a Pemba office to bring inspection, testing and HSE training closer to Mozambique’s expanding oil and gas operations. Food Trade & Livelihoods: Mozambique’s chamber of commerce and a Chinese group sign an MoU to boost cassava production and exports to China, targeting smallholders and processing.

Climate & Human Rights: A UN expert warns Mozambique must avoid deepening fossil fuel dependency, saying climate risks and overshoot will hit the poor hardest and that development should be aligned with a human-rights-based, “truly green” economy. Extreme Weather Costs: Mozambique’s recent floods caused losses around 2% of GDP, with over 100 deaths and hundreds of thousands affected, pushing a “new normal” where each climate event becomes a fiscal shock. Mozambique LNG Under Pressure: TotalEnergies is weighing faster Mozambique LNG expansion, while Justiça Ambiental and others urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders for LNG carriers over unresolved human-rights and community concerns. Marine Conservation: A regional push highlights that protecting sea turtles and other ocean life requires cross-border cooperation across the Mozambique Channel and wider Indian Ocean. Water & Clean Energy Adaptation: UNDP reports progress from a climate adaptation programme in Zimbabwe’s border area, improving water access and clean cooking—an approach relevant to regional climate resilience needs. Food & Trade: Mozambique and China move to export cassava, aiming to scale production and processing with smallholder integration. Biodiversity Action (Opinion/Analysis): Conservation ecologist Stuart Pimm argues for “less doom and more doing” to protect biodiversity.

Climate & Human Rights: A UN expert warned Mozambique must avoid “fossil fuel lock-in” and align development with the right to a healthy environment, as 2026 Super-El Niño and overshoot could hit the poor hardest. Extreme Weather Costs: Mozambique’s finance ministry said floods from Dec 2025–Jan 2026 caused losses around 2% of GDP, with over 100 deaths and hundreds of thousands affected, calling each climate event a “fiscal shock.” LNG Expansion Under Scrutiny: TotalEnergies is weighing faster Mozambique LNG Phase 2, while campaigners urge Japanese shipping firms to pause orders for LNG carriers over unresolved human-rights and community concerns. Marine Conservation: A regional focus on protecting connected ocean habitats highlights how sea turtles move through Mozambique Channel waters, making cross-border conservation and shared financing essential. Biodiversity Action: World-leading ecologist Stuart Pimm argues conservation needs “less doom and more doing,” stressing practical, science-led action. Food & Trade: Mozambique and a Chinese business group signed an MoU to boost cassava production and export, targeting smallholders and aiming for large-scale shipments to China. Energy & Resilience Planning: A regional climate outlook for the South-West Indian Ocean urges multi-hazard preparedness—drought and flooding risks vary by location, including Mozambique.

Climate Disaster Costs: Mozambique’s recent floods (Dec 2025–Jan 2026) caused losses around 2% of GDP, with 100+ deaths and 724,000 people affected, hitting Gaza and Maputo hardest and damaging schools, roads and livelihoods. Climate Risk Planning: The South-West Indian Ocean outlook warns governments to prepare for multiple hazards—drought and heat in the south, flooding and landslides in the north, plus impacts on farming, water, health, marine life and fisheries. Clean Energy & Water Access: UNDP reports progress in Zimbabwe’s Hakwata village (near the Mozambique border) under a climate adaptation programme: solarized boreholes, a clinic/school mini-grid and biogas are easing daily burdens and boosting resilience. Illegal Wildlife & Conservation: A Mozambican poacher linked to Kruger National Park was sentenced to 10 years after an armed confrontation, underscoring the threat wildlife crime poses to natural heritage. Mozambique LGBTQ+ Inclusion: A Global Voices feature highlights how discrimination against trans people and LBQ women persists through exclusion and institutional neglect, even without explicit criminal laws. Regional Energy Push (Mozambique-linked): India and Mozambique’s Nampula province signed a pact to explore a sustainable oilseed corridor, aiming to diversify edible oil supply and protect forests.

Illegal mining violence: Mpumalanga’s scenic R539 in Schoemanskloof was closed again after fresh gunfights between rival zama-zama groups, with a second body found near the road and residents describing the shooting as “like a war zone.” Ozone and climate-linked pollution: A South Africa PAIA investigation and undercover test found banned, global-warming refrigerant R22 being sold fast on the informal market, raising alarms about weak controls and supply-chain loopholes. Mozambique timber crackdown: In Cabo Delgado’s Mocímboa da Praia, authorities seized over 9,000 wooden planks (547.02 cubic metres) of precious native timber, allegedly destined for export routes, and are tracing owners and transport plans. Wildlife research in Mozambique: Students on a marine conservation trip helped identify and register a previously unrecorded whale shark off Tofo, adding to ongoing biodiversity monitoring. Aquaculture science: A University of Hawaiʻi study explains how Mozambique tilapia tolerate extreme salt stress, pointing to molecular changes that help fish survive shifting salinity. Regional energy pressure: Aliko Dangote’s $16bn refinery push in Kenya spotlights wider debates over fuel self-sufficiency versus environmental and land-rights concerns across the region.

Illegal Timber Crackdown (Mozambique): Mozambique’s environmental authorities seized over 9,000 wooden planks (547.02 cubic metres) of precious native timber in Mocímboa da Praia, Cabo Delgado, after monitoring illegal felling, transport and sales; the timber was stored in seven compounds and may have been awaiting loading for Tanzania. Wildlife Research (Mozambique): Students on a marine conservation trip in Tofo, Mozambique, helped identify and officially register a previously unrecorded whale shark as MZ-915, adding to ongoing conservation work. Climate Resilience (Zambezi Basin): Zambezi Basin states agreed on priority actions for food security, livelihoods and ecosystems ahead of a proposed US$130m regional climate-resilience programme (BREFOLE-ZRB), targeting pressures from climate variability on water, farming, fisheries and hydropower. Aquaculture Science (Mozambique): A University of Hawaiʻi study explains how Mozambique tilapia tolerate extreme salt stress by changing prolactin gene expression and gradually acclimating to rising salinity. Agricultural Heritage (Regional, incl. Mozambique): FAO convened a workshop to help countries, including Mozambique, build capacity for GIAHS recognition and dynamic conservation plans for agricultural heritage systems. Aviation Security (Regional): An AP report says a pilot on a Dubai–Tel Aviv flight stabbed the other pilot and tried to crash the aircraft, prompting an emergency landing in Saudi Arabia. Energy & Environment (Regional): Aliko Dangote says Africa could be largely fuel self-sufficient by 2030 as construction begins on a $16bn refinery in Kenya’s Lamu—despite land-rights litigation and environmental opposition.

Fuel & Industry: Nigerian billionaire Aliko Dangote says Africa will be largely self-sufficient in refined fuel by 2030, as he prepares to break ground on a $16bn, 700,000-barrel-per-day mega-refinery in Lamu, Kenya, with a 1,000MW power plant—despite a land-rights court case and environmental opposition from groups including Greenpeace. Marine Life in Mozambique: Isle of Wight students taking part in a marine conservation ocean safari in Tofo, Mozambique, helped identify and officially register a previously unrecorded whale shark (MZ-915 Medina), adding to local research using distinctive spot-and-stripe patterns. Climate Resilience (Zambezi): Zambezi Basin states agreed on priority actions for food security, livelihoods and ecosystems under a planned US$130m regional climate-resilience programme (BREFOLE-ZRB), spanning Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe. Governance & Environment Finance: Zimbabwe’s NRZ turnaround push highlights how governance and clearing outstanding audits are framed as key to unlocking new capital for transport infrastructure that underpins wider environmental and economic resilience.

Energy & Industry: Nigerian tycoon Aliko Dangote says Africa could be largely self-sufficient in refined fuel by 2030, pointing to a $16bn, 700,000-barrel-per-day refinery planned for Kenya’s Lamu coast—while dismissing land-rights and environmental opposition. Climate Resilience (Zambezi): Zambezi Basin states have agreed on priority actions for food security, livelihoods and ecosystems as a proposed US$130m regional climate-resilience programme moves forward, with Angola, Botswana, Malawi, Mozambique, Namibia, Tanzania, Zambia and Zimbabwe in scope. Water & Flood Risk (Maputo): Maputo Municipality has started construction of drainage works, aimed at improving stormwater management as extreme weather pressures grow. Health & Environment (Mozambique): A University of Hawaiʻi study explains how Mozambique tilapia adapt to extreme salt stress, shedding light on molecular changes that help the fish survive hypersaline conditions. Governance & Social Cohesion: Mozambique’s justice minister says interfaith cooperation is key to conflict prevention and to responding to floods, droughts and child malnutrition, with plans to expand religious conferences nationwide.

Zambezi Climate Resilience: Eight Zambezi Basin countries agreed on priority interventions for a proposed US$130m regional programme to strengthen food security, livelihoods and ecosystems, with Mozambique among the key partners as climate variability strains water, agriculture, fisheries, tourism and hydropower. Interfaith & Disaster Response: Mozambique’s justice minister says social cohesion depends on cooperation between the State and religious faiths, highlighting their role in conflict prevention and support during floods, droughts and health emergencies, and announcing expanded religious conferences nationwide. Mercury-Free Gold Mining: Mozambique is gathering international know-how to formalise artisanal gold mining and cut mercury use, aiming to align reforms with the PlanetGold push to eliminate mercury in gold processing. Mozambique Health Systems: Mozambique became the first Gavi Leap Champion, recognised for country-led immunisation budgeting and health-system strengthening aligned to national priorities. Cabo Delgado Security & Climate Risks: President Daniel Chapo urged defence forces to stay disciplined and prepare for threats including terrorism, trafficking, maritime security, cybercrime, disinformation, and climate change and natural disasters.

Mercury-free mining push in Mozambique: Mozambique has started preparing to formalise artisanal gold mining and cut out mercury use, aiming to join the PlanetGold effort; officials say the country has over 100,000 artisanal miners and that mercury is still widely used despite a 2006 ban. Health systems and immunisation funding: Mozambique became the first Gavi Leap Champion, praised for aligning holistic immunisation budgets with its National Immunisation Strategy and strengthening country-led health planning. Climate and human rights review: A UN Special Rapporteur will assess how Mozambique’s environmental and economic frameworks handle human rights amid climate shocks, with consultations planned across government, communities and civil society. Security and climate risks: President Daniel Chapo urged defence forces to stay disciplined while tackling terrorism and also addressing threats including drug trafficking, maritime security, cybercrime, climate change and natural disasters. Water stress in southern Africa: Research highlights worsening rainfall unreliability and rising temperatures affecting farmers along the Limpopo River, with some digging into riverbeds to keep crops alive. El Niño impacts: A study warns extreme El Niño heat could drive deaths across southern Africa, including Mozambique, as disaster agencies admit limited preparedness funds.

Mercury-free mining push in Mozambique: The government has started gathering international experience to formalise artisanal small-scale gold mining and cut mercury use, aiming to join the PlanetGold project; officials say mercury remains widely used despite a 2006 ban, and reforms are planned over the next five years for miners in provinces including Manica, Tete, Zambézia, Nampula, Niassa and Cabo Delgado. Health systems and immunisation funding: Mozambique became the first Gavi “Leap Champion”, praised for country-led reforms and for implementing holistic immunisation budgets aligned to its national strategy. Climate and human rights review: A UN Special Rapporteur will assess human rights in Mozambique in light of growing climate pressures, with consultations across government, local authorities, civil society and affected communities, and a final report expected in June 2027. Security and climate risks: President Daniel Chapo urged defence forces to stay disciplined and prepare for threats including terrorism in Cabo Delgado, plus climate change and natural disasters. Wild fruit conservation: Researchers cloned Southern Africa’s wild fruit trees to protect biodiversity and food sources as forests disappear, including wild loquat trees.

Mercury-free mining push: Mozambique has started gathering international know-how to formalise artisanal small-scale gold mining and cut mercury use, with reforms planned over five years under the PlanetGold effort; the country has 100,000+ artisanal miners and mercury remains widely used despite a 2006 ban. Climate and rights review: A UN Special Rapporteur will assess Mozambique’s human rights situation in the face of growing climate shocks, with a focus on how land, mining, petroleum and environmental rules work together and on consultations with affected communities. Health systems milestone: Mozambique became the first Gavi “Leap Champion” for aligning immunisation budgets with its National Immunisation Strategy and strengthening country-led health financing. Security and climate risks: President Daniel Chapo urged defence forces to stay disciplined while tackling terrorism and also preparing for future threats including climate change and natural disasters. El Niño heat impacts region: A study warns El Niño heat could drive thousands of extra deaths across southern Africa, including Mozambique, as disaster agencies struggle with limited preparedness funds. Wild fruit cloning: Researchers are cloning Southern Africa’s wild fruit trees, like wild loquat, to protect biodiversity and secure food sources as forests disappear.

Mercury-free mining push: Mozambique has started gathering international know-how to formalise artisanal small-scale gold mining and cut mercury use, with the PlanetGold project aiming to eliminate the toxic practice that still persists despite a 2006 ban. Climate-health warning: El Niño heat is projected to drive excess deaths across southern Africa, with Lesotho expected to see dozens of additional fatalities and Mozambique also flagged for a higher toll. Health system financing milestone: Mozambique became the first Gavi Leap Champion, recognised for aligning immunisation budgets with its national strategy and strengthening country-led health planning. Biodiversity rescue through cloning: Scientists are cloning Southern Africa’s wild fruit trees to protect miombo woodland biodiversity and secure food and income as forests disappear. Water and climate resilience planning: Mozambique’s UN-backed human rights assessment will examine how land, mining, petroleum and environmental rules hold up under growing climate pressures. Waste and drainage gap: Maputo Municipality is moving on drainage works as it struggles with low waste collection coverage. Wildlife crime crackdown: South Africa’s Hawks arrested a key suspect in a rhino trafficking cover-up tied to a game lodge network, underscoring ongoing pressure on biodiversity.